USD

Before the announcement of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the United States continuously released inflation data higher than expected. The rate hike in the United States has pushed one indicator of the US dollar trade-weighted index—the US dollar exchange rate—to a yearly high of 106.51. Subsequently, pressure from the decline in US Treasury yields after the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision caused the US dollar index, measured by the index, to fall yesterday. In the context, despite rising inflation risks, the Federal Reserve has kept borrowing costs unchanged in the current range of 5.25% to 5.50% and retained its previous forward guidance. After Chairman Powell made cautious remarks, the US dollar index plummeted to 105.29. According to Powell's observations, despite facing inflation pressure and a tight labor market, the US economy still maintains strong domestic demand. Although progress has been made, inflation remains high, leading the Federal Reserve to maintain a cautious stance on its future trajectory. Currently, investors have abandoned hopes for three rate cuts this year and instead postponed the start of the easing cycle to the fourth quarter.

After the FOMC meeting, the US dollar index fell below the 106.00 support level with the retracement of US yields to a near 3-week low of 105.43. The US dollar index was once very close to the high of early this month, 106.51, and less than 1% away from the high of October last year, 107.34. However, it is worth noting that the previous three Fed meetings ended with a decline in the US dollar, so US dollar bulls should bear this in mind. The US dollar seems to be attempting to break through the downward channel that emerged after the easing of the Israel-Iran situation. Since the wording in the statement has not changed to reflect the possibility of a rate hike, the obstacles to the current upward momentum remain quite high. Resistance above can be focused on 106.00 (psychological barrier of the market), and 106.51 (high point on April 16), as well as the region level of 106.52 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement from 102.35 to 106.51). As for the downside, consideration can be given to 105.00 (integer barrier). The next level points to 104.43 (50.0% Fibonacci retracement from 102.35 to 106.51).

Today, it is advisable to short the US dollar index near 105.55, with a stop loss at 105.70 and targets at 105.10 and 105.05.

WTI Spot Crude Oil

Midweek, oil prices plummeted by about 3% to a seven-week low due to unexpected increases in US crude inventories, hopes for a ceasefire agreement in the Middle East, and diminishing hopes for recent US rate cuts to boost oil demand. US crude oil fell. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that energy companies unexpectedly added 7.3 million barrels of crude oil inventories in the week ending April 26. In contrast, Reuters surveys showed analysts expecting a decrease of 1.1 million barrels in inventories, while data from the industry group American Petroleum Institute (API) showed an increase of 4.9 million barrels in crude oil inventories last week. The EIA also reported that gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased by 300,000 barrels. Analysts expected gasoline inventories to decrease by 1.1 million barrels. Additionally, in the Middle East, hopes for a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas are growing, spurred by renewed efforts by the US and Egypt. However, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has pledged to launch a long-promised offensive against the southern Gaza city of Rafah.

Technically speaking, the midweek decline dragged WTI back below $80.09 per barrel (65-day moving average) and below the psychological barrier of $80.00, breaking through the stable demand zone of the 200-day moving average at $79.82 per barrel to a low of $78.52 per barrel, the lowest in one and a half months. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) for WTI crude oil has a negative slope in the negative zone (36.20), indicating bearish dominance. US crude oil is currently down nearly 10% from its last fluctuation high of $81.25 per barrel in early April. The short-term downward target is first seen at $78.20 (lower line of the daily chart's descending channel), with the next level pointing to $77.30 per barrel (March 13 low). On the upside, the initial target can be focused on $80.00 (psychological barrier), and $79.82 per barrel (200-day moving average) will become a key resistance level. A breakout would target $81.80 (45-day moving average) and $82.98 (Tuesday's high).

Today, it is advisable to consider buying crude oil near $78.45, with a stop loss at $78.20 and targets at $79.50 and $79.75.

XAUUSD

Gold continued its daily decline, breaking below $2,290 in the latter half of Thursday. After the release of US data, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield erased its daily losses, causing gold prices to trend lower ahead of Friday's US employment data release. Market demand for the US dollar slowed down before the announcement of disappointing US data and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, prompting investors to regain interest in gold. Gold prices regained the $2,300 level and traded just below the daily high of $2,330. Furthermore, growth-related data can be described as lukewarm at best. Finally, the S&P Global confirmed that the monthly manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.4, well below the expected 50 and the previous value of 49.8. The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged for the sixth consecutive meeting at 5.25% to 5.5%. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated at a press conference that there is little likelihood of future rate hikes.

On the daily chart, gold prices recovered most of the lost ground from the beginning of the week, rising above $2,300. Currently, gold is still trading below the $2,322.50 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement from $2,146.50 to $2,431.10) - $2,321.50 range (9-day moving average). The technical bias is tilted towards the downside. Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near the 50 level, but the directional momentum is unbalanced, insufficient to indicate a clear direction. If gold prices fail to rise above the $2,321.50 - $2,322.50 range, they may reverse downwards to test $2,300.00 (psychological barrier), challenging the $2,285.50 (Wednesday low) and $2,288.80 (50.0% Fibonacci retracement) levels. During the uptrend, if gold prices reclaim $2,328.50 (Wednesday high), it will challenge the door opened by the April 26 high of $2,352. The next resistance level is $2,364.10 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement from $2,146.10 to $2,431.50).

Today, it may be advisable to consider buying gold before $2,300.00, with a stop loss at $2,295.00 and targets at $2,315.00 and $2,320.00.

AUDUSD

The Australian dollar/US dollar pair continued its strong rally for the second consecutive trading day, this time extending the recovery above 0.6500 and shifting focus towards the weekly high around 0.6580-0.6585, which coincides with the 100-day moving average. In early Thursday Asian trading, the Australian dollar/US dollar continued its rebound near 0.6520. The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50% during Wednesday's meeting, citing a "lack of further progress" in achieving the target of reducing inflation to 2%. The Federal Reserve adopted a cautious stance on its future interest rate path after the monetary policy meeting, leading to a decline in the US dollar. During the press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized that progress in inflation has recently stalled, and the Federal Reserve needs more time than previously expected to be confident that inflation will move towards the 2% target. Powell stated that if hiring remains strong and "inflation remains subdued," then "postponing rate cuts in this situation would be appropriate." On the Australian side, retail sales in Australia for March were lower than expected, with a monthly rate of -0.4% recorded, compared to a previous increase of 0.3%. This data dampened recent market speculation about a possible rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Midweek, the Australian dollar/US dollar continued its rebound after reaching 0.6550. If the currency pair continues to rise, it may test the 100-day moving average at 0.6581 and the weekly high of 0.6586 (April 29). Meanwhile, if bearish sentiment dominates the market again, the Australian dollar/US dollar may retest 0.6500 (integer level) and 0.6442 (February 13 low), followed by 0.6362 (April 19) and the integer level of 0.6300. Looking at the bigger picture, if the Australian dollar/US dollar can remain stable above the critical 200-day moving average, it will likely continue to rise. The 4-hour chart shows that the Australian dollar/US dollar seems to have regained some upward momentum. On the downside, the Australian dollar/US dollar will test 0.6465, followed by 0.6400.

Today, it may be considered to buy the Australian dollar before 0.6550, with a stop loss at 0.6530 and targets at 0.6585 and 0.6595.

GBPUSD

During the US session on Thursday, the GBP/USD rose to 1.2535. The US dollar continued to strengthen after falling under the influence of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, but did not allow the currency pair to regain momentum. The significant decline in the US dollar after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged supported the rise in major currency pairs. The Federal Reserve expects that cutting interest rates is not appropriate until there is confidence that inflation is steadily moving towards the 2% target. Additionally, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated during the press conference, "I don't think the next move in policy rates is likely to be up." These remarks sparked a moderate dovish response in the market, dampening the US dollar and providing momentum for the GBP/USD currency pair. On the other hand, last week, Hugh Pill, the Chief Economist of the Bank of England, warned that cutting interest rates too quickly, rather than too late, would pose greater risks. His comments provided some support for the British pound.

From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD rose midweek, breaking through 1.2525 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from 1.2893 to 1.2299) to reach a two-week high of 1.2570, but failed to break through 1.2596 (50.0% Fibonacci retracement level) and 1.2595 (40-day moving average). Traders should closely monitor this technical area, remembering that a breakout could lead to a rebound to 1.2666 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level) and 1.2700 (psychological level). On the other hand, if sentiment turns in favor of sellers and prices fall below 1.2515/1.2500, support is expected to test the mid-support level of 1.2448 on April 26 this year, and 1.2439 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level from 1.2893 to 1.2299), with a breakout pointing to the level of 1.2400 (psychological level).

Today, it is recommended to buy the British pound before 1.2518, with a stop loss at 1.2500 and targets at 1.2565 and 1.2570.

USDJPY

Due to suspected intervention by the Bank of Japan, the Japanese yen continued its upward trend against the US dollar. Despite causing some losses and pushing the USD/JPY to a high of 156.28 for the day, renewed selling pressure on major currencies pushed the currency pair to a two-week low. The USD/JPY traded at its lowest at 153.05. During the Asian session on Thursday, the Japanese yen faced heavy selling pressure and retreated further from the two-week high reached the previous day. The initial reaction to speculation of the Japanese authorities intervening for the second time this week to support their currency quickly faded as investors bet on the large US-Japan interest rate spread remaining for some time. This, along with the generally positive risk sentiment in the US stock market, became key factors weakening the safe-haven Japanese yen. Market focus will be on the well-known US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.

From a technical perspective, the rebound from the 200-hour moving average on the overnight 4-hour chart, followed by a break above this week's significant retracement level of 153.33 (50.0% Fibonacci retracement from 146.47 to 160.20) and the rebound above 153.00 (Wednesday's low) slightly above 155, favors bullish traders. However, cautiousness needs to be maintained in the mixed oscillators on the hourly/daily charts before any further intraday appreciation trend, indicating that the USD/JPY might encounter resistance around 156.96 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level). Nevertheless, some subsequent buying pressure will indicate that the recent corrective decline from historical peaks has ended, paving the way for further upward movement towards 158.28 (April 26 high). On the other hand, if the USD/JPY falls below the 153.33 and 153.00 areas, it may drag the pair back to 152.36 (40-day moving average) and enter the support area level at 151.72 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level).

Today, it is suggested to short the US dollar before 153.75, with a stop loss at 153.98 and targets at 152.90 and 152.60.

EURUSD

On Thursday, the EUR/USD continued its upward trend, helping the pair rebound from near 1.0650 on Wednesday and breaking through the 1.0700 level before the release of US Non-Farm Payrolls data on Friday. The overall positive market sentiment supported risk currencies like the euro. This increased market risk appetite can be attributed to the dovish comments made by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell midweek. From the perspective of the Eurozone, compared to the Federal Reserve, the ECB's policy stance is more dovish, and recent inflation data in the Eurozone has strengthened expectations of a rate cut by the ECB in June, which could pose challenges for the euro. The latest inflation data shows that Eurozone inflation in April remained in line with expectations. Additionally, core inflation declined, reinforcing expectations of an ECB rate cut in June.

From the daily chart, on the upside, the EUR/USD is expected to encounter the first resistance at the weekly high of 1.0752 (April 26), with a focus on breaking through the key 200-day moving average at 1.0798 and the psychological level of 1.0800. Further upward movement from these levels would target the March high of 1.0885 (April 9). If the currency pair experiences further decline, a break below 1.0650 (Wednesday's low) could test the 2024 low of 1.0601 (April 16). The 4-hour chart shows a sudden reversal in the trend, with targets for the EUR/USD at 1.0752, followed by the 200-hour moving average at 1.0761. Meanwhile, 1.0673 serves as previous support, followed by 1.0601 and 1.0516.

Today, it is suggested to buy the euro before 1.0710, with a stop loss at 1.0695, and targets at 1.0760 and 1.0770.

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